Bank of America chief economist Michael Hartnett predicts a “no landing” scenario for the first half of the year.
According to a fox business report, this means Hartnett sees no economic slowdown and inflation remains above trend. However, Hartnett’s forecast also warns that a rate hike could lead to a “hard landing” in the second half of 2023. He added that central bank tightening “always breaks something” and predicted that the S&P 500 would fall in could drop nearly 7% at the start. March.
The year 2022 was the worst year for all three indices since the 2008 financial crisis, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 8.8%, the S&P 500 falling 19.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite up 33.1%. In addition to Hartnett’s forecast, a global BofA survey of fund managers shows that most investors are skeptical about the current stock rally, with 66% of respondents expecting stocks to return to new lows.
The Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates from 4.5% to 4.75% eight times in a row. However, reports on economic data — including a disappointing inflation report pointing to high consumer prices — indicate that the Fed’s campaign to quell inflation is “very unfinished,” Hartnett said.